MOGADISHU — Over the last decade, Somalia has undergone a visible metamorphosis. Federal institutions, once abstract concepts, now convene with a regularity that was recently deemed impossible. The economy, though fragile, pulses with the energy of mobile banking, diaspora remittances, and a resilient entrepreneurial class. Mogadishu itself, for decades a global shorthand for urban ruin, has been recast in concrete, glass, and a sense of guarded optimism.
Yet, beneath this facade of recovery lies a more stubborn reality. Somalia’s defining challenge in 2025 is no longer the specter of state collapse; it is political stagnation. The system has endured not through transformation, but through a mastered ability to reproduce itself.
The Foundation of Continuity
Power remains concentrated within a narrow political elite that emerged during the post-civil war transition. While alliances shift and leadership rotates, the political class has proved remarkably durable. The roots of this continuity trace back to the 2000 Arta Peace Conference in Djibouti. There, the “4.5 formula”—allocating representation among major clans and minority groups—was established as a temporary bridge to a more representative system.
Instead of a bridge, it became a foundation. Research into Somalia’s “elite bargain” reveals that many of today’s most powerful figures trace their rise directly to this transitional era. As one Mogadishu-based researcher noted, “What Somalia has experienced is elite rotation, not elite renewal. The system is open enough to prevent collapse, but closed enough to block meaningful competition.”
The “Political Marketplace” in Somalia
The country’s indirect electoral model reinforces this equilibrium. Parliamentary seats are negotiated through a complex web of clan elders, brokers, and financiers. This insulates politicians from popular pressure while amplifying the influence of money and mediation. The International Crisis Group (ICG) has described this environment as a “political marketplace” where loyalty is traded pragmatically, often devoid of ideological substance.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s push for “one-person, one-vote” (OPOV) elections was initially seen as a move to break this cycle. However, the approach—widely viewed as unilateral—has deepened divisions. By late 2025, direct local elections were realized only in Mogadishu. Elsewhere, insecurity and political disputes have stalled the roadmap, with Puntland and Jubaland rejecting federal reforms they claim lack adequate consultation.
A Nation Divided by Time
The most striking disconnect is generational. More than 70 percent of Somalia’s population is under the age of 30, according to World Bank data. While young Somalis dominate the sectors of business, technology, and civic activism, they remain almost entirely excluded from formal decision-making.
Social media discourse has increasingly adopted the phrase siyaasad ku-sheeg (“so-called politics”) to describe this elite maneuvering. It is a term that reflects exhaustion rather than mobilization. Clan identity, while still central, has shifted; it is now often a tactical instrument used by elites to protect their interests rather than a genuine channel for community representation.
The Risk of Rigidity
Somalia’s international partners find themselves in a delicate position. While donors support electoral reform in principle, there is a pervasive fear that rapid implementation could destabilize the fragile political settlement. “There is a strong preference for predictability,” an African Union diplomat observed. “But that predictability has entrenched an order that many Somalis feel is disconnected from their lives.”
Somalia’s greatest risk is not a sudden return to chaos, but institutional rigidity. The arrangements that once saved the state from failure are now the very things preventing its transformation. As the country enters another contested cycle, it remains suspended—governed by a class that has yet to make room for the generation waiting to inherit it.
Abdi Guled is a Horn of Africa analyst and journalist specializing in political risk, armed groups, and regional geostrategy.